The Institution of Mechanical Engineers is privileged to be the UK representative in Future Climate: an international project for participating engineering associations, aimed at reducing the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to a sustainable level. The goal of the project is for each association, including the Institution, to develop a technology-based climate plan, and/or specific technology solutions for its home country for the period up to the year 2050.
Feeding into the UN climate summit
The data from the climate plans, technological solutions and scenarios will be used in a joint project report that will be presented to participants in the historic UN Climate Summit, COP 15, in Copenhagen in December this year. They will also provide fact-based evidence for national public debates on energy and climate in the run up to Copenhagen, and beyond.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions
There is an overwhelming need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a sustainable level. Overcoming global warming and climate change is a huge challenge and might well be the number one challenge for engineers and society this century. Technology-based climate plans and descriptions of technology solutions that outline a sustainable climate future form the core of the Future Climate project.
Producing a national plan to set realistic targets
The reduction of GHG emissions to a sustainable level is defined by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) as a scenario whereby the increase in global temperature does not exceed 2º C relative to pre-industrial levels. Each association will develop for their home country, climate plans and technology solutions which will contribute to this goal, setting ambitious yet realistic reduction targets. The Future Climate project advisory board will then consider whether the plans as a whole are consistent with the two degree target and feed in contributions to COP15 in Copenhagen.
Setting the targets
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that, if the concentration of CO2 equivalents in the atmosphere is kept within the range of 445-490 ppm, the average global temperature will increase by between 2.0 and 2.4° C compared to pre-industrial levels. As the total GHG concentration already reached 445 ppm of CO2 equivalents in 2005, the IPCC estimates that the emission of GHG must not peak later than 2015 and that the emissions of GHGs should be reduced by 50-85% in 2050 compared to 2000.
Reducing carbon emissions country by country
Sooner or later, all countries will be required to find ways of reducing the emission of GHGs. However, the exact target for each country is the subject of negotiations at COP15 and there will be differences depending on the stage of economic development amongst other factors. For the UK, the Institution will develop a plan that will reduce carbon emissions by at least 80% by 2050, to tie in with the recent Climate Change Act, which became law in 2008.
Setting global targets
In 2000, the total emission of CO2 equivalents was approximately 45 GT/year (IPCC, Working Group 3), corresponding to 7.4 tons of CO2 equivalents per capita. As the UN forecasts that the population will be 9 billion by 2050, the emission of CO2 equivalents should be reduced to between 0.8 and 2.5 tons per capita per year.
The climate plans and the scenarios will provide an opportunity for the Institution and other participating associations to demonstrate the proficiency of their engineers and members before national and international audiences.
How do you get involved?
We are tasked with developing a comprehensive climate plan for the UK, and to achieve this, we welcome expert assistance and input from all our members across the globe. There are two ways that you can get involved.
Firstly, if you have descriptions of promising technologies and quantification of their energy supply and carbon reduction potential that could be applicable both to where you are based and in the UK, do email us at: energy@imeche.org
Secondly, if you would like to get involved, but your expertise or data is more relevant to your immediate local environment, we can put you in touch with the engineering institution from that particular country. Again, please email us at: energy@imeche.org
